Dr. Kerim Can Kavaklı (Bocconi University) on April 20, 2022 at 1pm in FASS 2034 and over zoom.
"State Response and the Spread of Refugee-Native Clashes"
When does violence break out between refugees and natives in a host nation? How does past violence influence the risk of subsequent clashes? We answer these questions using a unique dataset on native-refugee clashes in Turkey, which hosts the largest refugee population in the world. Our main contribution is to show that the state's response to previous incidents is significantly related to the probability of clash diffusion. We propose a learning mechanism: potential rioters observe the outcomes of past incidents, infer the likely state response to new clashes, and adjust their behavior accordingly. Consequently, we expect lenient behavior towards rioters to raise the risk of new clashes by creating an atmosphere of impunity. Consistent with this argument, we show that when local bureaucrats in one location concede to native rioters by evicting refugees, more riots break out in nearby localities. We present further qualitative and quantitative evidence that suggests the learning mechanism is the strongest explanation for these patterns. Our findings imply that coordinating local responses to native-refugee violence may help lower the overall level of violence. More broadly, this research suggests that local authorities play an important role regarding violence between refugees and natives.
Meeting ID: 929 1591 5594